Andrew Korybko
Iran is poised to gradually return to the US-led
Western order within certain limits exactly as Iran’s moderate faction has long
wanted, its hardline faction has successfully preserved the armed forces and
their missile stockpile, while Israel achieved none of its goals in its most
epic defeat ever
Iran and the US plan to sign
a Zarif-inspired memorandum
of understanding (MoU) on ending the Third Gulf War this Friday in Switzerland.
The exact details aren’t yet known, and Fortune reported
that there were at least three competing texts, but all of them “include
similar elements around reopening the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway, giving
Iran sanctions relief and opening the door to longer-term negotiations around
its nuclear program.” That’s already enough to arrive at several very important
conclusions.
For starters, reopening the
strait without Iran’s wartime petroyuan
toll booth in place would represent a significant concession by the
Islamic Republic, whose media surrogates celebrated this
model as an historic multipolar milestone. The same goes for resuming
negotiations on its politically sensitive nuclear program. The sanctions relief
in exchange might arguably be worth it, however, judging by this estimate here of the
profound economic-financial damage caused by the US’ (imperfect) blockade.
On that topic, it was explained here in late March that “The US will have lost the Third Gulf War if China can still rely on Iran as a reliable low-cost energy supplier while turning the yuan into a global reserve currency that challenges the petrodollar”, so preventing both is imperative from the US’ perspective. With the petroyuan reportedly out of the picture, that leaves Iran’s oil export dependence on China, but sanctions relief could help gradually redirect its sales (such as to India) without disrupting the market.























